In early 2025, newly imposed U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China sent ripple effects through global trade. For many dealmakers, the impact was immediate. Several cross-border acquisitions, particularly in manufacturing and technology, were delayed, restructured, or called off entirely. 

The targets hadn’t changed. But the macro environment had, and with it, the deal’s entire foundation. 

Macroeconomic risks in deals are not a new reality. Interest rate shocks, currency shifts, regulatory pivots, and geopolitical moves can change deal dynamics faster than traditional diligence can respond. In such an environment, macro intelligence is essential to building resilient, future-proof transactions. 

What Is Macro Intelligence, Really? 

Macro intelligence is not simply economic forecasting or skimming global headlines. It’s the structured, strategic interpretation of external forces – economic, political, regulatory, environmental, and technological – that could meaningfully impact a deal’s value and viability. 

It’s the ability to ask, with rigor and timing: 

• How will this deal perform if the interest rate environment tightens faster than expected? 

• What does an upcoming election in the target’s home market mean for sector regulation? 

• Could shifting trade alliances or sanctions affect cross-border flows? 

• Are there long-term demographic trends that will dampen consumer demand or talent availability? 

• How exposed is this asset to ESG-related policy shifts that aren’t priced in yet? 

• Are there long pending referendums which are likely to take place? 

• Are there committed plans or referendum results pending implementation, that are likely to create autonomous regions or independent states, that impact our resource and cost assumptions? 

• What are the FOREX trends that are likely to have long term gradual impact on the top and bottom lines? 

Macro intelligence helps you to answer the macroeconomic risks in deals, not with speculation, but with actionable insight. It doesn’t seek perfect prediction; it aims for strategic clarity under uncertainty. 

The Problem Isn’t the Deal. It’s Ignoring Macroeconomic Risks in Deals 

Despite operating in an increasingly complex global context, many deal teams continue to treat macroeconomic risks in deals as background noise, something to be considered post-signing, if at all. The default posture remains “inside-out”: starting from the target company’s internals and extrapolating forward. 

Deals collapse or underperform not because the spreadsheets were wrong, but because the assumptions behind them were. Inflation erodes margins. Policy changes reshape tax exposures. ESG costs materialize faster than expected. Political volatility delays integration. They’re foreseeable risks when you widen the aperture early. 

Macroeconomic Risks in Deals: Where Macro Intelligence Changes the Game? 

The real value of macro intelligence lies in its integration across the entire deal lifecycle, not as an add-on, but as a core driver of timing, structure, and strategy. 

• In pre-deal planning, macro awareness helps determine where capital should flow in the first place. Should you prioritize emerging markets entering a growth-friendly policy cycle? Or pull back from jurisdictions facing tightening capital controls, repatriation norms or unstable fiscal regimes? 

• During target screening, macro filters help you rule out attractive companies in fragile environments. A rising star in a geopolitically tense market, or a carbon-intensive manufacturer in a jurisdiction accelerating decarbonization policy, might look good today but underperform tomorrow. 

• In due diligence, macro intelligence stress-tests your core assumptions. Can that revenue forecast survive a consumer spending slowdown? Are there foreign exchange risks that will eat into returns? Is the sector about to be repriced because of a regulatory overhaul? 

• In valuation and deal structuring, macro foresight gives you leverage. You may adjust pricing based on expected cost inflation or FX depreciation. You might add macro-linked earn-out structures or contingency clauses to hedge against volatility. 

• And post-deal, macro intelligence guides how you integrate, where you invest, and how you adapt the business to an external environment that is still evolving. It also informs when and how you exit, optimizing timing based on interest rate cycles, sector re-ratings, or political events. 

Why Macroeconomic Risks in Deals Must Lead Strategy? 

• Identifying sectors positioned for fiscal stimulus before the market responds 

• Entering markets ahead of policy liberalization and regulatory easing cycles 

• Acquiring assets aligned with long-term structural shifts like decarbonization, digital infrastructure, demographic transitions, or supply chain realignment 

• Timing entry before capital crowds in, when valuations are still favorable 

• Positioning deals for long-term policy alignment, benefiting from subsidies, ESG mandates, or industrial strategy incentives 

• Gaining first-mover advantage in reshaping markets, not just participating in them 

Embedding Macro Intelligence into Your Deal  

To harness macro intelligence to tackle macroeconomic risks in deals effectively, organizations must shift their mindset from “deal first, context later” to “strategy informed by context.” That means: 

• Institutionalizing macro scanning at the earliest stages of deal discussion. 

• Building multi-disciplinary teams that blend investment acumen with policy, economics, and geopolitical expertise. 

• Partnering with specialized advisors or intelligence platforms that track real-time developments in key regions and sectors. 

• Running scenario models that pressure-test key assumptions under different macro environments. 

• Making macro exposure part of the founders’ dialogue, not an afterthought. 

This isn’t about complexity for its own sake. It’s about building a discipline of curiosity and humility into your approach, acknowledging that no deal lives in a vacuum, and no return is immune to the world it’s embedded in. 

How MS Turns Macro Intelligence into Deal Advantage 

At MS, macro intelligence is built into every deal we advise on. Here’s how we help you move by keeping macroeconomic risks in deals as a core focus: 

• Pre-deal macro screening to guide where and when to invest 

• Smart structuring that prices in FX, tax, and policy shifts 

• Sector-focused insights that align with long-term global trends 

• Risk filters and scenario models embedded into your IC process 

• On-the-ground expertise across the Gulf region and key emerging markets